President Donald Trump’s chances of avoiding impeachment in the U.S. Senate are taking a turn for the worse as more polls show Democrats leading in key Senate races.
With public opinion strongly against Trump Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, Republicans are taking a great chance by forcing through a vote on his confirmation. Many voters — but especially women voters — are very unhappy at the way the GOP senators have discounted the claims of sexual assault against Kavanaugh.
And now, new opinion polls show Democrats leading in key Senate races in many states won by Donald Trump in 2016, increasing their chances of taking Senate control.
For example, a new poll released this morning shows comfortable leads for five Democratic Senate candidates in Midwestern states won by President Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election.
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The Reuters poll showed that Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Bob Casey (D-Pa.), and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisc.) all have double-digit leads, while Sen. Joe Donnelly’s (D-Ind.) lead is smaller but still significant.
The Reuters poll also shows Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke leading GOP incumbent Ted Cruz by two, 47 percent to 45 percent.
This new poll is consistent with other polls, as shown in the RealClearPolitics summary of U.S. Senate polls.
For example, RealClearPolitics shows two Democratic incumbent senators in “red states†won by Trump with healthy leads over their GOP challengers. Jon Tester in Montana and Joe Manchin in West Virginia both are ahead in their polls.
According to the Reuters Poll:
- Brown leads Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Ohio) in the Ohio Senate race, with a 50 to 39 percent advantage.
- In Michigan, Stabenow leads businessman and veteran John James (R) by a margin of 55 percent to 35 percent.
- In Pennsylvania, Casey holds a 16-point edge over Rep. Lou Barletta. Fifty-three percent of voters support Casey, while just 37 percent support Barletta. In Wisconsin, Baldwin has the support of 52 percent of voters compared to Republican Leah Vukmir, with support from just 39 percent of voters.
- In Indiana Donnelly is in a tight race against businessman Mike Braun. The poll shows 46 percent of respondents backing Donnelly, while 43 percent backed Braun.
According to RealClearPolitics the two Democratic incumbent senators in the worst situations are Claire McCaskill in Missouri and Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota. Neither of these two women are ahead in the polls, but neither are they far behind.
Since most polls were taken more than a week ago, they do not reflect attitudes of voters in response to the sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. These allegations may energize women voters in Missouri and North Dakota and help carry McCaskill and Heitkamp to victory.
The RealClearPolitics summaries show some other very good news for Democrats in their quest to take back control of the Senate. They need to pick up a net of two Senate seats, and they are ahead in the polls in three Senate races currently held by the GOP: Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee.
Recent polls show Karen Sinema in Arizona, Jacky Rosen in Nevada and Phil Bredesen in Tennessee all with significant leads over the Republican candidates in those states.
In addition, recent Florida polls have shown Democratic Senator Bill Nelson with leads over Republican Governor Rick Scott.
All trends in Senate polls in September have favored Democrats. If this continues over the next month there is an excellent chance that Chuck Schumer will retake his position as Senate Majority Leader as Democrats win control of the Senate.
I am a lifelong Democrat with a passion for social justice and progressive issues. I have degrees in writing, economics and law from the University of Iowa.
