As Republicans stand on the verge of nominating Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court following yesterday’s announcement from Maine Sen. Susan Collins, there is one silver lining for Democrats: It could help them in the midterms.
According to MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki on Saturday, the confirmation fight has helped Republicans somewhat close the enthusiasm gap with Democrats. A recent NPR poll shows 82 percent of Democrats saying the midterms are important, while 80 percent of GOP voters feel the same way.
With that battle likely to subside now that the Senate is poised to approve Kavanaugh, it could mean the bump in Republican energy will return to its pre-confirmation fight levels and Democratic enthusiasm will surge even more.
Not to mention: If the focus returns to where it has been for most of the two years – Donald Trump – that will only hurt Republicans.
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“Today we’re talking about a Republican base that’s been re-energized for the first time in a while,” Kornacki said. “What’ll we be talking about in three weeks?”
Video:
Steve Kornacki explains why GOP enthusiasm could fade if Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed on Saturday. #ctl #p2 pic.twitter.com/i7mftMkHiO
— PoliticusUSA (@politicususa) October 6, 2018
Kornacki explains:
It feels like if the election were going to be held today, that surge from Republican base voters that Republicans have been hoping for might actually be there. And then they might be able to keep the House. Might be able to gain some seats in the Senate, a couple seats in the Senate. But that is the wild card. Events move so fast in politics right now. Three weeks ago, we were all talking about Manafort and Cohen and Trump’s reaction to the McCain funeral. Remember that op-ed in the New York Times? It was all presidency in crisis. Today we’re talking about a Republican base that’s been re-energized for the first time in a while. What’ll we be talking about in three weeks?
Democrats are ready to throw them all out
Sending a man credibly accused of sexual assault who repeatedly lied under oath to the United States Supreme Court might be a victory for Republicans, but it’s only going to mobilize Democrats even more than they already were.
As FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver wrote this week, citing recent polling, the party that gets its way in the Kavanaugh fight will likely be hurt the most in a month when voters head to the polls.
“A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted earlier this week found that more voters would be angry than enthusiastic if Kavanaugh was confirmed — but also, more voters would be angry than enthusiastic if Kavanaugh was not confirmed,” Silver explained. “Whichever party doesn’t get its way on Kavanaugh will have more reason to feel aggrieved — and perhaps more motivation to turn out to vote.”
Republicans will celebrate their so-called victory on Saturday, but in November they may regret ever sending Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court.
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Sean Colarossi currently resides in Cleveland, Ohio. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and was an organizing fellow for both of President Obama’s presidential campaigns. He also worked with Planned Parenthood as an Affordable Care Act Outreach Organizer in 2014, helping northeast Ohio residents obtain health insurance coverage.
