Larry Sabato is famous for his “crystal ball” predictions of American elections. In fact his website is known as “Sabato’s crystal ball.” He is a highly respected political science professor at the University of Virginia. He has historically been one of the most accurate predictors of election results. And he is predicting a Big Blue Wave on November 6th.
On Tuesday Sabato visited with NBC News political director Chuck Todd, who asked the professor for his predictions on this year’s midterms.
“It could be a tsunami, it could be a middle-sized wave, it could be a small wave. ” — Larry Sabato, UVA Center for Politics Director thinks there will be a “blue wave” come November, but wonders exactly how big.”
"It could be a tsunami, it could be a middle-sized wave, it could be a small wave. "
— Larry Sabato, UVA Center for Politics Director thinks there will be a "blue wave" come November, but wonders exactly how big. https://t.co/T3nF4OhlJE
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) October 9, 2018
One thing Sabato pointed out is that it looks like Donald Trump right now is primarily focusing on his own 2020 re-election instead of on other Republicans who are on the ballot in November. He said that Trump is only going to places that matter to him, not where he can do the most good for Republican candidates.
He also said that Trump’s ongoing blusters about a “red wave” is nothing but typical Trumpian empty rhetoric.
“His re-election campaign is running flat-out and I think they know that even if Republicans hold the Senate given the very pro-Republican map that exists, President Trump is in trouble in some of these states, he’s fallen considerably,” Sabato told Todd.
According to Sabato “the Midwest seems to be flipping,” and the “Big 10 states” (referring to the college sports conference in the upper midwest) that went for Obama and then Trump are now going back to the Democratic Party. The professor said that many midwestern voters are “nice people” who have been very turned off by Trump’s confrontational and bombastic style.
For several months Trump has been insisting that a “red wave” is coming with zero data or election results to back up his claims. It’s just another example of how deluded he is.
And Larry Sabato knows it. In the conclusion of his remarks to Todd, the highly-regarded professor said this:
“The Red Wave ain’t gonna happen. Right now it’s just a question of how big the Blue Wave is going to be.”
I am a lifelong Democrat with a passion for social justice and progressive issues. I have degrees in writing, economics and law from the University of Iowa.