Recently Republicans and the mainstream media have been promoting the narrative that Republicans are tightening the race for control of the U.S. House of Representatives. But a new Washington Post/ABC News poll contradicts this narrative, showing Democrats with a very strong 11 percentage point lead in the generic congressional ballot. And independent women voters favor Democrats by an astounding 33 percentage points.
— The Hill (@thehill) October 15, 2018
The generic ballot (along with the presidential approval rate) is one of the primary statistics used by political forecasters who are trying to predict in advance the results of November’s midterm elections. So this new poll is bound to get the attention of the entire political world as GOP members of the House realize that their days of being in charge are numbered.
The new poll asked the following question:
“If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican candidate) in your congressional district? Would you lean toward the (Democratic candidate) or toward the (Republican candidate)?”
The poll results show that 53% of registered voters said they would choose a Democrat, while 42% said they would choose a Republican.
Self-identified Democrats and Republicans who were part of the survey pretty much went with their own parties. Ninety-five percent of Democrats would choose their party’s candidate, compared to 93 percent of Republicans who would select the GOP candidate on the ballot.
The real news is which party is favored by the so-called independent voters who do not identify with either major party. And this poll shows that the independents heavily favor Democratic candidates, which is really bad news for the Republicans’ chances to retain control of the House.
Fully 52% of independent voters said they will vote for a Democrat, while just 38% said they will vote for a Republican on November 6th.
Another significant difference uncovered in the new poll is the “gender gap” showing large differences between independent men and women.
Independent men voters slightly favor Republican candidates by a margin of just three percentage points (46% to 43%). On the other hand independent women voters favor Democratic candidates by a 33 percent margin (62% to 29%).
Historically, this may be one of the largest independent voter gender gaps ever seen in American politics.
If Democrats do in fact take back control of the House in 2018 it will clearly be the result of women voters. Donald Trump and the Republican Party have gone out of their way to alienate women voters, and they will now be bearing the fruit of their bad seeds.
The Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation fight certainly did not help the GOP close the gender gap, and if you listen to Donald Trump you get the feeling that he doesn’t even care. He seems to thrive on conflict and discontent, and he thinks that the more sexist he is, the more his base of core supporters will support him.
Reports have recently shown that millions of women have left the Republican Party because of Donald Trump, possibly forever.
On November 6th women voters will finally have their chance to send a message telling Donald Trump exactly what they think of him. And in doing that, they will be helping the Democratic Party take back control of at least one branch of Congress.
I am a lifelong Democrat with a passion for social justice and progressive issues. I have degrees in writing, economics and law from the University of Iowa.