Nate Silver is out with his latest forecast, and it shows that Democrats have an 85% chance of winning the House.
Silver said on ABC’s This Week, “If you were running a business and I told you there’s a 15% chance that your key supplier won’t make its delivery, you would treat that as a real-world risk and would do things to hedge against it. You cannot circle 23 districts where Democrats will for sure win. Maybe 10, 12, 15 look very likely. However you have a field of 80, 90, maybe 100 pickups mathematically. Probably the dice come up good enough for Democrats in those districts. There are not a lot of guarantees, and the House is fought by a district by district level….It really is the mirror image of the Senate. Democrats have so much exposure in the Senate. Democrats are kind of in a no lose situation. Democrats might have four or five seats they can lose versus 100 GOP seats in play. Anywhere from a 20-seat gain if Democrats have a disappointing night up to 50, 60 seats if the turn out is high.”
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— Sarah Reese Jones (@PoliticusSarah) October 21, 2018
If Democrats win the House, it will be a very good election night for America
Due to the number of seats that Democrats were defending in red states, the Senate is a big uphill climb. The House is where everything is falling into place for Democrats. It is possible that Republicans could squeak through with a 1-3 seat majority, but given the fact that nearly 100 Republican-held seats are in play, the probabilities are that Democrats win anywhere from 30-60 or more seats.
Nothing is a given, and the Senate is not a lost cause. Democrats have been working hard on the ground since Trump took office. If they keep doing what they have been doing for the last nearly two years over the next two weeks, it is going to be a very good election night for Democrats, and for the rest of the country, as Republicans will finally be balanced and checked.
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Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association