A new poll shows that Democratic candidate for governor Stacey Abrams is tied with Republican Brian Kemp in Georgia.
In a head-to-head contest among registered voters in Georgia, both Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Brian Kemp receive 47 percent support. Among likely voters, Kemp gets 49 percent to Abrams’ 47 percent, but that result is well within the poll’s margin of error. When libertarian Ted Metz is included on the ballot, Kemp’s lead shrinks to 1 point among likely voters — Kemp gets 46 percent, Abrams gets 45 percent and Metz gets 4 percent.
In a two-way race among likely voters, Abrams leads among African-American voters 84 percent to 11 percent, while Kemp leads among whites by a 2-to-1 margin (66 percent to 31 percent). African-Americans made up 25 percent of the likely voter sample. Abrams also wins younger voters by 13 points (55 percent to Kemp’s 42 percent), women by 14 points (55 percent to 41 percent), and college graduates by 7 points (52 percent to 45 percent.) Among white women with a college degree, Abrams trails Kemp by 4 points, 47 percent to 51 percent. Kemp is leading among rural voters by a 2-1 margin (66 percent to Abram’s 31 percent), men by 18 points (57 percent to 39 percent) and noncollege graduates by 11 points (53 percent to 42 percent.) Among independents, Abrams leads 50 percent to 41 percent.
Stacey Abrams had a great first debate against Brian Kemp, but unless she gets a big enough turnout to get over 50% of the vote, it is easy to envision this contest heading to a runoff. Republicans have done everything imaginable to suppress and discourage the Democratic vote in Georgia, so the fact that the discussion is centering around whether or not Abrams can win outright or go to a runoff is remarkable.
There is no excess vote around for Brian Kemp. He has to rely on the standard Republican coalition of rural white lower educated voters to get him over the top. If turnout is even slightly off for Kemp, Abrams could win outright on election night. The poll is great news for Democrats as Republicans have stacked the deck against them, but Stacey Abrams is still in a position to be the next governor of Georgia.
For more discussion about this story join our Rachel Maddow and MSNBC group.
Follow Jason Easley on Facebook.
Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association