SEWICKLEY, Pa. (Reuters) – Donald Trump’s stunning 2016 White House win got a major boost from sagging Democratic enthusiasm in Pennsylvania, but now the party is poised for big wins on Tuesday in congressional races in the state that could signal which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives.
A court-ordered overhaul of Pennsylvania voting districts and stubbornly low approval ratings for Trump in the state have placed Democrats within striking distance of claiming at least half of Pennsylvania’s 18 congressional seats in a test of the party’s ability to win back working-class voters.
Republicans are scrambling.
Take Republican incumbent Keith Rothfus. He won election in 2012 in Pennsylvania’s current 12th district outside Pittsburgh, which includes some staunch Republican strongholds. The 56-year-old attorney was reelected twice by constituents who favored Trump by over 20 percentage points in 2016.
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But redistricting has forced Rothfus into a new 17th district, where only 36 percent of voters are Republicans and nearly half are Democrats.
Opinion polls now show Rothfus trailing moderate Democrat Conor Lamb, a 34-year-old former Marine who gained political stardom by winning a special House election in a solidly Republican district last spring. Lamb has support from more than half of likely voters.
The change in Democratic fortunes increases the party’s hopes of making the net gain of 23 seats it needs to control the House and stall much of Trump’s agenda. Republicans are favored to hold the Senate.
“Pennsylvania is going to be the bellwether. It is ground zero if you’re looking at who’s going to control the House,” said Mike DeVanney, a Pittsburgh-based Republican strategist.
MORE SEATS IN PLAY
Democrats, who currently hold six of Pennsylvania’s House seats, could win at least nine, according to the University of Virginia Center for Politics, which tracks House and Senate races.
“Anything more than that probably would reflect an outcome in which Democrats won significantly more than the 23 net seats they need,” said Center analyst Kyle Kondik.
All told, at least seven House Republican seats once considered safe are now in play as a result of the redrawn map in Pennsylvania.
“We were having elections that did not have two candidates running in them in many of these districts. That doesn’t give people a real choice,” Lamb told Reuters in an interview. “A citizen deserves to have a competitive election.”
Rothfus, who was not available for an interview, has campaigned largely on economic issues, a position that won him an endorsement on Friday from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
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