A Looming Recession May Sink Trump’s Bid For Reelection

The soft job growth numbers released today suggest an economy that is slowing down and could be in a recession when Trump runs for reelection in 2020.

Ben White of CNBC said on MSNBC:

The hope of course among white house advisers and Larry Kudlow and others is that that recession’s still a ways off and the tax cuts lead to a lot more capital expenditures. Maybe that happened, but I think, you know, you look at the jobs number coming in a little soft and the question is have we seen the best job numbers in this recovery. Are we on the trajectory where we go from 200,000 to 100,000 and then double digits. I think economic history suggests yes, that’s exactly where we’re going. It means the Fed doesn’t have to raise interest rates quickly.

It could signal we have seen the greatest growth we’re going to see. We’re going to get towards a recession exactly when President Trump is trying to run for re-election. After he said 3% growth every year. We may not get 3% for the full year this year. This suggests to me next year we’re looking at growth in the 2s. Not a great argument for a president who said I will unleash this economy in ways you’ve never seen before and make America great again. I think ways you have never seen before, and make America great again. It may be slowing down as we head towards 2020.


A Recession Would Doom Donald Trump

If there is a formula for building a one term is would include one part personal unpopularity, one part policy unpopularity, and two parts recession. Better presidents than Trump have been done in by recessions. A recession during Trump’s reelection campaign would make it nearly impossible for him to win a second term.

A bad economy tops all else when voters go to the polls to choose a president. Trump won’t have the benefits of an economy that is trending up, and the level of personal popularity that Obama had in 2012. Personal popularity is not the same as job approval rating. All else being equal voters will vote for the candidate that they like more.

The combination of a down economy, presidential scandal, and personal unpopularity could make Trump a failed one-term president.

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