A new poll found that Trump’s core base is shrinking as just 23% of voters said that they would definitely support Trump in 2020.
According to the latest Morning Consult/Politico poll:
A 47 percent plurality of registered voters said they would “definitely” vote for someone else if the 2020 presidential election were held today, along with 7 percent who said they “probably” would. Combined, the two make up a majority of voters who are looking for an alternative to Trump as Democratic candidates begin to line up for their party’s nod to challenge the unpopular incumbent at the halfway point in Trump’s term.
The survey, conducted Jan. 11-14, found the president’s core support currently at 23 percent. That’s the share of voters who said they’d definitely vote to keep him in office for another term. Twelve percent said they’d probably vote to re-elect the president.
Less than half (46 percent) of self-described conservatives, for example, said they’d definitely vote for Trump in 2020. What’s more, 17 percent of those voters said they’d definitely vote for someone else.
Trump’s Base Of Support Is Shrinking
In order for Trump to even have a snowball’s chance of winning a second term, his support with the electorate needs to be within single digits of the Democratic nominee. Twenty-three percent isn’t going to cut it. Trump’s base is shrinking from 35%-38% of voters to 23%. If Trump’s core base remains in the twenties, he will not only lose reelection, but Republicans will lose the Senate, and Democrats will keep the House.
The 2020 election feels like it is a long time away, but it really isn’t.
As the clock ticks toward election day, Trump’s support is going in the wrong direction, and if this pattern holds, the 2018 midterm Republican bloodbath could happen again in 2020.
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Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA.Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association