A Goldman Sachs study says that Trump will win reelection based on economic data, but polling shows that economic data has no impact on voters’ feelings about Trump.
Study Predicts Narrow Trump Reelection Win
Bloomberg reported on the Goldman Sachs study, “Incumbent presidents carry a 5 to 6 percentage-point edge over rival candidates in the popular vote and Goldman Sachs’s economic forecast also leans in favor of Trump, although that is partly offset by his negative approval rating, economists Alec Phillips and Blake Taylor wrote in a report released late on Saturday….Historically, Phillips and Taylor found variables such as employment and income are better indicators of an election result than market-based forces such as equity or oil prices. The performance of the economy in the second quarter of the election year is often a strong guide to the result, they said.”
How Voters Actually Feel Doesn’t Match Up With Data
The standard president that had Trump’s economic data should be favored to win. Presidents with good economies usually win a second term. It has been a general rule of American politics since the dawn of polling.
The problem when it comes to Trump is that how voters feel about this president has nothing to do with the economy.
Take the recent Georgetown University Battleground Poll as an example. Voters give Trump a 58% approval rating on the economy. That should mean that Trump is well on his way to reelection, but here is what the Georgetown Battleground Poll also found:
– 59% of voters are worried about an economic downturn.
– Trump’s disapproval rating has held at a steady 55%.
– 57% of voters believe that the country is on the wrong track.
If the economic data is so great, why does a majority of battleground state voters feel that the country is on the wrong track?
The Goldman Sachs Study Is Wrong Because 2020 Isn’t Going To Be About The Economy
The 2020 election won’t be about the economy. House Republicans tried to run on the economy in 2018 and got blown out.
If Democrats nominate a candidate who can communicate honesty, empathy, experience, and stability, they stand a good chance of beating Trump. Trying to project the 2020 election based on traditional factors like the economy is a fool’s errand that is going down the wrong path and missing the point and the reasons why a majority of voters want to vote against Trump.
Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association