Trump is in real trouble in the swing states as his approval rating is negative in all the states that will decide the 2020 election.
Trump’s approval is underwater in every swing state
According to a new Morning Consult 50 State poll of Trump’s approval rating, here are Trump’s swing state approval ratings:
Wisconsin: 42% approval, 55% disapproval (-13 net approval)
Michigan: 43% approval, 53% disapproval (-10)
Arizona: 44% approval, 52% disapproval (-8)
Iowa: 44% approval, 52% disapproval (-8)
Pennsylvania 45% approval, 52% disapproval (-7)
Ohio: 46% approval, 50% disapproval (-4)
Florida: 47% approval, 49% disapproval (-2)
North Carolina: 47% approval, 49% disapproval (-2)
Indiana: 50% approval, 46% disapproval (+4)
3 States to watch that aren’t Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan
Wisconsin and Michigan may already be moving out of Trump’s range for victory. Pennsylvania also looks like a tough haul for Trump that could become unwinnable if Democrats nominate Scranton’s own Joe Biden, who is already working hard in the Western Pennsylvania region where Trump ran up a big margin of victory over Hillary Clinton, but there are three other states that voters need to keep a close eye on.
Iowa has been hit hard by Trump’s trade war. It is also a state that Obama won twice, and it could be ready to swing if Biden is on the ticket. If Trump loses Iowa, the odds are good that he will have lost the election. Arizona is a potentially huge trouble spot for Trump. The state has been showing signs of moving toward the Democrats, and it would be surprising if that shift happens in 2020. Ohio is also worth watching because, even though the state has been moving right, Trump is unpopular, and Obama won the state twice.
Democrats may have a number of paths to victory in 2020
Trump has to hope that the election map is the same in 2020 as it was in 2016. The president has not expanded his map to add an additional state into his column. If the current trajectory holds, Democrats will have more paths to 270 electoral college votes than Trump. The negativity toward Trump is real, but negativity doesn’t equal votes. Democrats are going to have to turn the poll numbers into real votes.
The path is there, but Democrats have to get out the vote to send Trump back to Trump Tower.
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