Joe Biden has opened up an 18 point lead in New Hampshire over Bernie Sanders in a state that Sanders must win to have a chance at the Democratic nomination.
Joe Biden Leads Bernie Sanders by 18 In New Hampshire
The new Monmouth University Poll of New Hampshire found:
In a field of 24 announced and potential candidates, Biden holds a clear lead with 36% support of registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters who are likely to participate in the February 2020 primary. He is followed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 18%. Other contenders include South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (9%), Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (8%), and California Sen. Kamala Harris (6%). Registering at least 1% in the poll are former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke (2%), Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (2%), New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (2%), former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (1%), Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan (1%), and entrepreneur Andrew Yang (1%). The remaining 13 candidates earn less than 1% or were not chosen by any respondents in the poll.
Biden does especially well among voters aged 65 and older, garnering 53% support with this group compared to only 9% for Sanders. The former vice president also bests Sanders by 36% to 19% among those aged 50 to 64, but he trails the Vermont senator by 20% to 27% among voters under the age of 50. Biden tops Sanders by 45% to 10% among self-described moderates and conservatives, but he lags by 23% to 29% among liberals. A majority of likely Democratic primary voters (58%) describe themselves as moderates or conservatives in New Hampshire, a state that allows unaffiliated voters to participate in either party’s primary.
Joe Biden Leads With Voters Who Are Focused on Beating Trump
Interestingly, it is not Biden’s Obama connection that is powering his support. The Monmouth University Poll also found, “Biden garners somewhat more support among voters who prioritize beating Trump (39%) than he does among those who are looking for issue alignment in their nominee (32%). Sanders, on the other hand, does much better with “issue” voters (33%) than “electability” voters (13%). Harris does slightly better with electability voters (8%) than issue voters (4%). There are no significant differences in support for other candidates between these two types of voters.”
Bernie Sanders has some real problems
The Sanders campaign wants to run against the establishment, but their biggest problem is that many Democrats care more about beating Donald Trump than fighting among themselves over policy nuances. Sen. Sanders is mostly running the same campaign as he ran in 2016 without adjusting for the political climate change that caused by Trump’s election.
Many Democratic voters instinctively understand that the way to beat a far-right candidate like Trump isn’t to go to the far left but to occupy the left and center that Trump has abandoned. Support for Bernie Sanders has been slipping in polling since before Biden got in the race. The drop for Sanders has not all been caused by Biden. Part of the problem is that Sanders is struggling to appeal to voters who place winning in November ahead of everything else. Sanders is sliding, and if he doesn’t rebound and win New Hampshire, he will have no chance of being the Democratic nominee.
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Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association