A new Quinnipiac University poll released on Tuesday has bad news on multiple fronts for Donald Trump.
First, the president’s approval rating has plummetted back into the 30s as only 38 percent of the country approve of the job he’s doing, while 57 percent disapprove.
Earlier in the month, the same survey showed Trump’s approval rating clocking in at a still-dismal 41 percent. Overall, according to RealClearPolitics, the average share of Americans who support the president’s job performance stands at a paltry 42.7 percent.
The second piece of bad news from the Quinnipiac University survey relates to the 2020 presidential election, which is already in full swing.
According to the poll, the potential Democratic opponent Trump fears most – former vice president Joe Biden – has a +10 favorable rating, making Biden the only candidate in either party with a positive score.
Trump’s favorability rating, on the other hand, is worse than Biden’s by double digits with just 38 percent of respondents saying they hold a favorable opinion of the incumbent president.
The survey is the latest in a series of bad polling data that shows Trump’s reelection could be in major trouble.
Any candidate with a net-positive favorable rating will likely beat Trump
While political pundits will spend the next year and a half picking apart polls and diving into the trend of the moment, it is likely that any Democratic candidate with a positive favorability rating will defeat Trump.
As of right now, that candidate appears to be Joe Biden, who is seen as likable by a near-majority of the American people – far better than any of the other hopefuls seeking the Democratic nomination.
Whether it was fair or not in 2016 (hint: it wasn’t), a majority of the country did not view Hillary Clinton favorably. It’s one reason Trump was able to eke out an Electoral College victory.
If Trump ends up facing Joe Biden in 2020, he won’t have that same good fortune of running against an opponent with similarly negative favorability ratings. That stat alone – combined with historically low approval ratings – could be enough to send him packing next year.
Sean Colarossi currently resides in Cleveland, Ohio. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and was an organizing fellow for both of President Obama’s presidential campaigns. He also worked with Planned Parenthood as an Affordable Care Act Outreach Organizer in 2014, helping northeast Ohio residents obtain health insurance coverage.