Before House Democrats can convince the rest of the country to impeach Trump, they need to convince their 31 members in districts that Trump carried.
Nancy Pelosi Doesn’t Have The Votes To Impeach Trump
Pelosi’s majority includes 31 members who represent districts Trump carried in 2016 and could face electoral danger. Impeachment might accomplish little more than energizing Trump 2020 voters.
Close Pelosi allies insist she couldn’t gain majority support for impeachment even if she tried, not to mention the two-thirds of a Republican-run Senate needed for conviction and removal from office. “There will never be 218 in the House,” a leadership aide told me.
The math of the recent vote on impeachment that was forced by Rep. Al Green (D-TX) backs up what House Democratic leadership is suggesting.
The votes aren’t there. The 31 Democrats who represent districts that Donald Trump won in 2016 can see that impeachment is not popular with voters in general. If these nearly three dozen Democrats want to win second terms and keep the House in Democratic hands, they feel the need to stay far away from impeachment.
Blaming Pelosi is both easy, and it displays a fundamental ignorance of the dynamics of this Democratic House majority.
Robert Mueller’s testimony was an important step, but unless public opinion changes and a whole bunch of House Democrats change their minds, impeachment won’t happen in the House before the 2020 election.
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