The latest Quinnipiac University poll found that white blue-collar women without a college degree are fleeing Trump and signaling that they won’t vote for him.
Trump is only at a net (+4) with non-college educated white voters. 45% said that they would definitely vote for Trump, but 41% said that they definitely would not be voting for Trump.
The 41% that definitely won’t vote against Trump was a very high number, so he asked Quinnipiac for a more detailed breakdown.
Sargent found that Trump’s problem with blue-collar voters is centered around white women, who said by a net (-4) that they definitely won’t vote for Trump (47%-43%). Sargent speculated that blue-collar white women are fleeing Trump because of his racist attacks. That is possible, but another explanation could be that white women who don’t have a college degree are also some of the most likely voters to feel the reality of Trump’s economy.
If one was to describe the voter who was most likely to be economically struggling and feeling left behind in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, that voter would be female, white, and lacking a college degree.
Should these numbers stay consistent through the 2020 campaign, Donald Trump will lose the three Democratic Rust Belt states that he carried, and could possibly find himself underperforming in other midwestern states like Ohio and Iowa.
As Trump has gone more extreme with racism, he has shrunken his base. Trump is pushing white women out of the Republican Party. By election day 2020, the only people left in the GOP may be old, rural, white men, as Donald Trump is well on his way to remaking the party in his own image.
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Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association