Joe Biden and Cory Booker both gained three points in the four early voting states last week, while Elizabeth Warren dropped five points and Kamala Harris two.
The latest Morning Consult survey of Democratic primary voters found that the race is slightly different in the early voting states than in the national polls. In the early states of Iowa, New Hamshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, Biden (+3) leads Bernie Sanders (-1) 35%-19%. Elizabeth Warren (-3) is in third at 11%, and Kamala Harris (-2), Tom Steyer (0), Pete Buttigieg (-1), and Cory Booker (+3) are all tied for fourth.
There is a great of consistency in the polling. Joe Biden is in the lead, and that hasn’t changed since he entered the race. Bernie Sanders is at his usual 18%-20%. The jumble begins after Biden and Sanders as Warren, Harris, and Buttigieg have all flirted with third. Nearly two-thirds of the early state voters are supporting one of the top three candidates. The media likes to portray the Democratic primary as wide open, but in primary has had a stable top five for months. The odds are very high that the Democratic nominee is going to come from one of the top five.
Biden is running no worse than second in any early state. Biden is first in every early state, but second in a new poll of New Hampshire to Sanders. Sen. Sanders is going to be a factor, because his support is so consistent, but Joe Biden’s support has also been consistent and bigger. At these percentages, Biden and Sanders would be the only candidates to meet the 15% threshold to get delegates in the early states.
There is some clarity below the chaos as Democratic field is starting to sort itself out and giving voters at least five serious options for the nomination.
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Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association