Donald Trump has done nothing to reach out to swing voters during his presidency, and he appears to be suffering in key battleground states as a result.
As MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow pointed out on Tuesday, Trump is underwater in 10 swing states – including Utah (!) – ahead of next year’s election, and it should have his reelection team deeply concerned.
Trump underwater in…
– Wisconsin (by 10)
– North Carolina (by 9)
– Virginia (by 17)
– Utah (by 3)
– Pennsylvania (by 12)
– Texas (by 1)
– New Hampshire (by 26) (not a typo)
– Michigan (by 11)
– Iowa (by 4)
– Arizona (by 9)
— Rachel Maddow MSNBC (@maddow) August 13, 2019
Of the 10 key states that Maddow listed, Trump carried eight of them in 2016. The fact that the president is now underwater in these states gives Democrats numerous paths to 270 electoral votes.
In fact, it would only take a Democratic victory in Texas – every other state could remain in the same column as 2016 – to deny Trump a second term in 2020.
Of course, Texas is still an uphill climb for Democrats. Recent polling shows that the best chance for a Democrat to win back the White House may run through the rust belt – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
According to the same data cited by Maddow on Tuesday, Trump is also underwater by two points in Ohio – another state he carried in 2016 that he must win in 2020 if he wants a second term.
It’s still early, but Trump’s lagging numbers in key parts of the country are setting the stage for another blue wave in 2020.
The suburbs are abandoning Trump
Donald Trump is banking on his enthusiastic base to give him another four years in the White House, but suburban voters are abandoning him. It might not matter if the MAGA base is riled up come 2020.
As The Hill noted on Tuesday, Trump is “performing poorly with some of the key voting blocs that populate the nation’s suburbs, notably white women and white college graduates.”
His unpopularity among these groups could be enough to push the swing states he barely won in 2016 back into the blue column.
As The Hill added, “The margins were so narrow that any shift in the suburbs could swing those states back into the Democratic column, even if Trump were to retain the enthusiasm of his base.”
With the help of Russian interference, former FBI director James Comey’s ill-timed letter and an unpopular Democratic nominee, Donald Trump was able to thread the needle in 2016.
As of today, the numbers indicate that he will have a difficult time replicating his 2016 victory next year.