One day after a poll showed a three-way tie for the Democratic nomination, a new poll shows Joe Biden with a 13 point lead.
A day after the Monmouth University poll showed the Democratic primary in a three-way tie with Warren, Biden, and Sanders tied at 20%, a new Morning Consult survey has Biden leading Sanders and Warren 33%-17%-15%. In early states, Monmouth University had Biden and Warren tied at 20% with Sanders at 16%. The Morning Consult poll has Biden leading Sanders and Warren 33%-17%-12%.
What’s Going On With The Democratic Primary Polling?
The freakout yesterday is a reminder that cable news treats every single poll as alike. The media also only tends to read the top line of the polls, and runs with the headline. The Monmouth University Poll was a much smaller poll (800 total calls) that only based its results on 298 registered and likely Democratic voters. Representative sampling means that a good pollster, like Monmouth University, is, doesn’t need a huge sample to get an accurate result, but 298 respondents is a very small sample size. The odds of generating an outlier poll are higher when the sample size is smaller. The margin of error in the Monmouth University poll was 5.7%.
The Morning Consult survey consisted of 17,303 interviews with registered voters who indicate they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus. The margin of error is 1%. The Morning Consult survey has a bigger sample, As you can see, there are two very different polls, from two very good pollsters. The Morning Consult survey is much bigger. They interview more Democratic primary voters. Their margin of error is lower. Given these variables, the Morning Consult survey is probably a more accurate reflection of the state of the Democratic primary.
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Read the polls yourself
Don’t trust cable news headlines on polls. Reading the polling yourself. There is no indication outside of one poll that the Democratic primary is a tie, but the first media polling freakout of 2020 is warning that the press will jump on any top line of a poll and beat into the ground for hours and days if they think it will be a good story.
Polling is a snapshot of what is happening at that moment. Outliers happen in polls, and they are no reason to freakout one way or the other.
As the old saying goes, Election Day is the only poll that matters.
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Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
