A new poll shows the top four Democratic presidential candidates all beating Donald Trump by double digits because white women have fled this president.
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, 54 percent of registered voters say that they would vote for former Vice President Joe Biden, while only 38 percent would vote for President Trump.
Matchups against other top Democrats show: Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders topping Trump 53 – 39 percent;
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren ahead of Trump 52 – 40 percent;
California Sen. Kamala Harris beating Trump 51 – 40 percent;
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump’s 40 percent.
Looking at all of the matchups, President Trump is stuck between 38 and 40 percent of the vote. These low numbers may partly be explained by a lack of support among white women, a key voting bloc that voted for Trump in the 2016 election. Today, white women go for the Democratic candidate by double digits in every scenario. Though it is a long 14 months until Election Day, Trump’s vulnerability among this important voting group does not bode well for him.
Put aside the Democratic horserace for a moment, and let’s look at the bigger trend. Donald Trump is shrinking the Republican Party. In the Quinnipiac Poll white women have fled Trump. Other polling shows that suburban voters are abandoning Trump. The Republican Party is being transformed into an older white male rural party. This is not a coalition that is big enough to win a general election.
In the history of polling, there has never been a president who used his office to make the base of his party smaller. Presidents have lost support across the board while losing bids for reelection, but we have never seen a president negatively transform his own party in the way that Trump is doing.
It would be easy to look at this poll and conclude that Democrats can nominate anyone and win, but that’s not the message. If Democrats play into Trump’s hands by nominating a candidate that he can use to divide America by making the election us versus them, it will give him an opening, even with a shrinking party to a second term.
The top of the Democratic field is loaded with good candidates, and the door is wide open for a Democrat to win the White House in 2020.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA.Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association