While Donald Trump is deeply unpopular and polling shows that the top Democratic candidates hold consistent national leads over him, a new set of rust belt surveys shows that only former Vice President Joe Biden is leading in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
According to the Firehouse/0ptimus poll, Biden beats Trump in all three of those key states, while Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are narrowly behind in Michigan.
As the country learned in 2016, winning that trio of states is crucial if the Democrats want to prevent a second Trump term. Without carrying each of them, there’s a good chance Trump will be in the White House for another four years.
As Firehouse/0ptimus notes, “Overall, Trump continues to struggle in these three states. He trails Biden in all three states, and only leads Warren and Sanders in Michigan. His approval rating is also underwater by 4 points in Michigan, 9 points in Pennsylvania, and 12 points in Wisconsin. There seems to be more upside for the Democrats than Trump at the moment, though with over a year left, the landscape can change drastically between now and election day, as it did in 2016.”
It should be noted that while Biden is the only candidate in this particular poll to win each of the three key states, other pollsters have shown both Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders also beating Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
But no matter the polling firm, Biden continues to perform better overall than his Democratic opponents in head-to-head matchups against Trump, whether on a national or state level.
Trump is struggling in the heartland
The reason Trump is sitting in the Oval Office today hate tweeting celebrities and drawing fake hurricane maps is that he was able to flip three states – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – that the Democrats have historically relied on to win presidential elections.
The best way for Democrats to win back the White House is to put these rust belt states back into their column, while holding onto all of the other states Hillary Clinton won against Trump in 2016.
In order to do that, primary voters must nominate the person with the best chance of winning – not only in the already-blue parts of the country, but also the purple states.
So far, polling indicates that Joe Biden is that candidate.
Sean Colarossi currently resides in Cleveland, Ohio. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and was an organizing fellow for both of President Obama’s presidential campaigns. He also worked with Planned Parenthood as an Affordable Care Act Outreach Organizer in 2014, helping northeast Ohio residents obtain health insurance coverage.