New Iowa Poll Finds Warren Surging, Sanders Fading, and Biden Leading

A new Iowa poll shows Joe Biden with a narrow two-point lead over Elizabeth Warren as Pete Buttigieg has taken over third and Bernie Sanders is in fourth.

The new Focus On Rural America Iowa poll found, “Compared to the most recent poll in July, gains have been seen for Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar, while support for Sanders and Harris has fallen. Tom Steyer receives 3% in the first time his name was included in the menu of candidates.”

Biden leads Warren 25%-23% with Buttigieg in third at 12%. Bernie Sanders is fourth at 9%. Amy Klobuchar is fifth at 8%, and Kamala Harris is sixth at 5%. Joe Biden has gained eight points since July. Elizabeth Warren continued her upward swing with a 3 point gain, and Pete Buttigieg has gained two points. Bernie Sanders lost three points since July, and eight points since March. The biggest drop in support was for Kamala Harris who went from 18% in July to 5% in September.

The Iowa polls are going to bounce around more before caucus day, but heading into the homestretch of 2019 one would rather be a candidate who is gaining support than losing. Time is starting to run out. The good news for the campaigns is that Iowa is all about organization. The bad news for those who are trying to catch Biden and Warren is that each of the top two Democrats has fantastic field operations in the early states.

Elizabeth Warren appears to have put a ceiling on the support for Bernie Sanders, but his campaign is the only one with the potential to match Warren and Biden in terms of caucus organization. Iowa is famous for underdog winners, but a win by Biden or Warren could launch them into solid frontrunner status in what looks to be a close Democratic primary.