The backbone of Donald Trump’s 2016 Electoral College victory was the midwest, but a new poll released Thursday shows that it could be his undoing in 2020 – if he makes it to the election.
According to a survey conducted by Emerson Polling, Trump would lose the state of Ohio (!) to all of the leading Democratic contenders – Former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
The head-to-head match-ups in Ohio via Emerson:
– Biden 53%, Trump 47%
– Sanders 53%, Trump 47%
– Warren 52%, Trump 48%
In the 2016 presidential election, Trump carried the Buckeye State over Hillary Clinton by 8 percentage points. The survey shows double-digit swings in favor of the Democratic candidates.
For Biden, his six-point edge over Trump in Ohio is the third straight lead he’s held in polls conducted in the state.
Pence would lose Ohio, too
In the still-unlikely scenario that enough Republicans in the Senate come to their senses and vote to remove Donald Trump as part of the current impeachment proceedings, Vice President Mike Pence would lose Ohio, too.
According to Emerson, Pence would lose to Biden by 8 points, while Sanders and Warren would carry the state by 2 points.
In other words, if Republicans are privately looking for an exit ramp from Trump that would prevent them from complete electoral disaster, Mike Pence probably isn’t the answer.
Ohio voters believe Trump deserves impeachment
The poll shows another alarming statistic for Trump and his Republican defenders in Congress: A plurality of Ohio voters believe the president deserves to be impeached.
According to Emerson, 47 percent support impeachment, while just 43 percent of Buckeye State voters oppose it – numbers that should worry the GOP in a state that many thought was fully in the red column.
The country is a long way off from the 2020 election and these numbers can shift, but it’s clear that the Ukraine extortion scheme and the formal impeachment inquiry it triggered are causing severe political damage to Trump in places – like Ohio – where he should be performing strongest.
Sean Colarossi currently resides in Cleveland, Ohio. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and was an organizing fellow for both of President Obama’s presidential campaigns. He also worked with Planned Parenthood as an Affordable Care Act Outreach Organizer in 2014, helping northeast Ohio residents obtain health insurance coverage.