President Donald Trump believes that he can get Democrats to vote against impeachment, and stop Speaker Pelosi from having the votes to impeach him.
Many of Trump’s advisers, both inside and out of the White House, have given him their unpleasant prediction that he will almost certainly be impeached by the House of Representatives. But they have also told him they believe there is almost no chance the Senate convicts him.
One person who spoke to Trump in the past 10 days said he seemed resistant to that prediction and said he thought he could stop Nancy Pelosi from getting the votes to impeach. The source said Trump seemed confident that he could pile enough pressure onto House Democrats in “Trump districts” (where he won in 2016 but Democrats took back in 2018) that those incumbents would cave on Pelosi.
There are several problems with the president’s thought process. House Democrats already have the votes needed to impeach Trump. There is a pundit class out there that likes to build suspense for a living, but Speaker Pelosi wouldn’t have moved forward with the investigation if she didn’t already have the votes to impeach.
The other problem is that those “Trump districts” that the president is counting on to save him from impeachment have already flipped to Democrats in 2018. Sure, those districts could flip back in 2020, but given the high level of support for impeachment, and the fact that Democrats have been spending weeks in their districts and they have seen no mass protests against impeachment, it is a good sign that these incumbents aren’t being hurt by supporting the impeachment investigation.
Trump can’t scare House Democrats into voting against impeachment.
Democrats already have the evidence, and there is nothing Trump can do to stop Democrats from impeaching him.
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