Since last week’s Iowa caucus, the media has been pushing the narrative that Democrats are doomed and Donald Trump’s reelection chances are stronger than they’ve ever been.
They point to an outlier poll from Gallup and the president’s fake acquittal in the Senate as further proof that he is riding a wave of momentum into the general election.
But more polling released on Monday further confirms what has been true all along: Trump is in a weak position heading into the November election – perhaps weaker than any incumbent president in modern history.
That doesn’t mean he won’t win, of course, but it does mean that he isn’t this unstoppable political force that some in the media have been portraying him as in recent days.
According to a new poll conducted by DFM Research, three out of four top Democratic presidential candidates are within 10 points of Trump in the deeply red state of Kansas – yes, Kansas.
The survey shows Trump leading Michael Bloomberg by just seven points (50 to 43 percent), Joe Biden by eight points (51 to 43 percent) and Bernie Sanders by 10 points (53 to 43 percent). Elizabeth Warren trails further behind with the president leading her by 12 points (53 to 41 percent).
A casual observer might think these are pretty solid Trump leads, but it’s important to keep in mind that Trump won Kansas by 20 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Not to mention, the poll also shows the most likely Republican and Democratic Senate candidates deadlocked at 43 percent. Picking off a Senate seat in Kansas would go a long way in helping the Democrats win back the Senate in 2020.
In 2018, Democratic candidate Laura Kelly pulled off a major upset over Republican challenger Kris Kobach in the state’s governor’s race, so it’s not impossible for a Democrat to win a statewide contest.
No one is saying Trump will lose Kansas
Of course, no one is claiming that Kansas will suddenly fall into the Democratic column later this year, whether at the presidential level or in the Senate contest.
But if the polling is accurate and the state has gone from Trump +20 to Trump within single digits of his eventual Democratic opponent, then it will spell trouble for the president in other states where the margins will likely be much closer.
The general election is still nine months away and there is plenty of campaigning left to do, but multiple polls released on Monday should at least poke a hole in the idea that Donald Trump has become unbeatable.
Sean Colarossi currently resides in Cleveland, Ohio. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and was an organizing fellow for both of President Obama’s presidential campaigns. He also worked with Planned Parenthood as an Affordable Care Act Outreach Organizer in 2014, helping northeast Ohio residents obtain health insurance coverage.