Tight Virginia Primary Shows No Clear Leader Between Sanders, Bloomberg, and Biden

A new poll of Virginia reveals just how close the Democratic primary is with Sanders and Bloomberg tied at 22%, and Biden with 18%

According to the Monmouth University Poll of the Virginia Democratic primary:

Among Virginia voters who are likely to participate in the Democratic primary on March 3, support currently stands at 22% for Bloomberg, 22% for Sanders, and 18% for Biden. They are trailed by Pete Buttigieg (11%), Amy Klobuchar (9%), and Elizabeth Warren (5%). Another 11% of likely primary voters remain undecided and do not lean toward any candidate at this time.

Virginia does not have party registration and any voter may participate in the primary. Among those who identify themselves as Democrats, Sanders (22%), Biden (21%), and Bloomberg (20%) are on equal footing. Other candidates get less support among self-identified Democrats, including Buttigieg (13%), Klobuchar (7%), and Warren (6%).

Among those who call themselves independents (plus a small number of self-identified Republicans), Bloomberg (25%) and Sanders (23%) share the lead, followed by Biden (13%), Klobuchar (13%), and Buttigieg (8%), with Warren getting only 2%. White voters are split between Bloomberg (25%) and Sanders (23%), while Biden leads among black voters (37%). One-third of voters under 50 years old prefer Sanders (35%), while a similar number of those aged 65 and over back Bloomberg (32%)

In Virginia, Bloomberg is cutting into support for both Biden and Sanders. Bloomberg is taking away support with white voters from Sanders, and he is hurting Biden with older voters.

Bloomberg isn’t doing any actual campaigning in Virginia. He is relentlessly running tons of ads in the state.

The Virginia primary looks like a preview where the primary is heading. Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Steyer have all fallen off. The primary could come down to a three-way race between Sanders, Bloomberg, and Biden.

No candidate has established themselves as the clear leader, and this pattern could continue through the entire primary.

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