If Donald Trump wants another four years in the White House, he will almost certainly have to carry the same three rust belt states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – that gave him a slight Electoral College victory in 2016.
Multiple new polls released on Monday show that if Joe Biden is the nominee, Trump will have a tougher time winning back those states.
Three polls of Michigan were released on Monday, and both of them show Trump trailing the former vice president.
Another poll from Our Progress pegs Biden’s lead over Trump at five points, 51 percent to 46 percent.
In Pennsylvania, according to Yahoo News/YouGov, Biden leads Trump by a solid six-point margin, 46 percent to 40 percent.
According to Yahoo News/YouGov, Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin by two points, 44 percent to 42 percent.
The race overall is a dead heat between the two men, but the last three polls show Biden either leading over tied with Trump.
Trump will be on defense in 2020
The difference between Donald Trump and the Democratic nominee, particularly if it is Joe Biden, is that the former vice president still has routes to 270 electoral votes without winning all three of those rust belt states – Trump doesn’t.
As of this writing, Biden currently leads Trump in North Carolina and Florida, two states that Trump carried in 2016. If the former vice president wins both of those states, he doesn’t even need Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win the Electoral College.
Ultimately, while this election will be close, Trump is an unpopular president who will spend the campaign on defense in swing states. That’s why the president and his Republican allies in Congress have worked tirelessly to smear Joe Biden and drive down his favorability numbers.
As new polling showed today, though, that strategy has so far been a massive failure.
Sean Colarossi currently resides in Cleveland, Ohio. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and was an organizing fellow for both of President Obama’s presidential campaigns. He also worked with Planned Parenthood as an Affordable Care Act Outreach Organizer in 2014, helping northeast Ohio residents obtain health insurance coverage.