Without carrying Florida in November, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which Donald Trump wins another four years in the White House.
That’s why a new poll from the president’s favorite cable network, Fox News, is likely to trigger alarm bells in MAGA world as former vice president Joe Biden leads Trump in the critical swing state.
According to the survey, Sunshine state voters prefer Biden over Trump by three percentage points, 46 percent to 43 percent.
It’s a close race, to be sure, but it also tracks with other new polling that shows Biden ahead in Florida.
Overall, the former VP leads Trump in the state by an average of just over three percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics.
Biden cuts into Trump strongholds
Driving Joe Biden’s lead in Florida is the fact that Donald Trump’s edge among white voters has dropped drastically since 2016.
Against Hillary Clinton, Trump won white voters in Florida by 32 points. This poll shows his lead with those same voters down to 18 points. Among white voters without a college degree, Trump’s lead has gone from 36 points against Clinton to 24 points against Biden.
The former vice president is also outperforming Clinton among Florida women and independent voters.
Biden leads Trump by 12 points with female voters in the state, a group Clinton only won by four points in 2016. Among independents, which Clinton lost by four points four years ago, Biden is ahead by 11 points.
Ultimately, it’s far too early to tell which column Florida will fall into come November. But one thing is clear: Joe Biden has a chance to turn the state blue this fall, which would effectively end the Trump presidency.
Sean Colarossi currently resides in Cleveland, Ohio. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and was an organizing fellow for both of President Obama’s presidential campaigns. He also worked with Planned Parenthood as an Affordable Care Act Outreach Organizer in 2014, helping northeast Ohio residents obtain health insurance coverage.