Rachel Maddow Blows Up Trump’s Coronavirus Model That Predicted Zero Deaths By May 15

Rachel Maddow blasted Donald Trump on Monday for basing his entire reopen strategy on a broken model that predicted zero coronavirus deaths by May 15.

For those following along, the number of deaths from the virus surpassed 90,000 on Monday, and it continues to increase rapidly. It should also be noted that May 15 was three days ago.

“This is their model … that the White House used to base decisions on reopening around the country,” Maddow said. “But it is literally just a thing they made up about what they hoped might happen with the epidemic.”

In other words, Trump and his team of unqualified sycophants used a broken model to determine how quickly to reopen the economy, and they’re sticking by it even though it’s been proven wrong.


Maddow said:

Quote, the model shows deaths dropping precipitously in May and essentially going to zero by May 15. Zero deaths by May 15. May 15 was this past Friday, three days ago. American deaths from coronavirus did not go to zero by May 15. Why are they calling this a cubic model? Why did the White House decide this was the model they were going to follow? That seems obvious. What is a cubic model? Where did they get this? Nobody really knows. A cubic function is a mathematical concept that has nothing to do with how viruses work or contagion works. It is a sort of a math way to put a meaningless line over a bunch of numbers on a graph that makes the numbers look like they will drop to zero or less than zero right after they peak. You can do that, you can draw a line like that, on any amount of data, on an excel spread sheet, without having any understanding of infectious diseases or contagion whatsoever. And I’m sure it’s very comforting if you decide to believe that line is a real thing. But that line isn’t a real thing. It’s just a thing you can put on a graph. Kevin Hassett and the council of economic advisers eventually tweeted out this sharpie. Look at this. This isn’t somebody else drawing on it. This is actually what they tweeted out this. This Sharpie-looking thing, to defend how rigorous their model was. But this is their model, created by an economist, that the White House used to base decisions on reopening around the country. But it is literally just a thing they made up about what they hoped might happen with the epidemic, that has nothing to do with real epidemiology. It said the deaths would be zero by May 15 and so they cranked to get the whole country open to take advantage of the fact that deaths would be zero.

This administration has gotten the pandemic wrong since day one

Aside from the broken Trump model that predicted zero coronavirus deaths by May 15, Vice President Mike Pence also claimed last month that this crisis would be over by Memorial Day.

“If you look at the trends today, I think by Memorial Day Weekend we will largely have this coronavirus epidemic behind us,” the VP said.

It should be noted that Memorial Day is next week, and this crisis isn’t anywhere close to behind us, as the vice president promised.

In fact, since Pence’s prediction, the CDC has revised its coronavirus death projections upward. By June 1 or sooner, the U.S. is projected to have 100,000 fatalities from the virus.

The Trump administration has gotten this pandemic wrong since day one. Months into the crisis, they still aren’t even close to getting it right.

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