Sen. Martha McSally now trails her Democratic challenger Mark Kelly 51%-38% in an Arizona Senate race that is a must-win for Republicans.
McSally now trails Democrat Mark Kelly by 13 points, according to the latest tracking poll by OH Predictive Insights.
While the April poll of 600 likely voters favored Kelly 51% to McSally’s 42%, in May it’s now 51%-38%.
The poll shows independents breaking more than 2-1 for Kelly.
In May 2019, this same tracking poll showed Kelly up over McSally, 46%-41%, among likely voters in Maricopa County.
In May 2020, Kelly has climbed to 54% in Maricopa County while McSally has dropped to 36%.
Maricopa County is known as the Republican stronghold in the state. It is the most populous county and the reason why Arizona is a red state. If McSally loses Maricopa, she loses the election. A Mark Kelly win in Arizona would also be a good sign for Joe Biden’s hopes of turning the state blue.
Unless Doug Jones pulls out a miracle in Alabama, Democrats will probably need at least four seats and a Biden presidency to take back the Senate. Republicans already appear to have given up on Sen. Cory Gardner in Colorado. Joni Ernst has seen her lead vanish in Iowa. Thom Tillis in North Carolina is a seat that Republicans are worried about, the fake moderate act of Susan Collins appears to have reached its expiration date in Maine.
Mitch McConnell’s Senate majority is slipping away, and there may be little that he can do to stop the Senate from going blue.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association