Donald Trump will lose the election in a landslide if the economy doesn’t improve. That’s the conclusion of a model that’s been extremely successful in predicting the popular vote.
The Oxford Economics model has correctly predicted the outcome of the popular vote in 16 of the last 18 elections – though it does not predict the electoral college.
Using economic factors such as unemployment and inflation, Oxford Economics predicts former Vice President Joe Biden will sweep the popular vote with 65%.
Trump would win just 35% of the vote under this modeling. This would be a historic and humiliating defeat for an incumbent on par with William H. Taft’s loss in 1912.
Neither party has won less than 40% in a two horse race since 1972, so the model should be taken with caution. However, before the pandemic Oxford Economics had Trump winning comfortably with 55% support.
The model predicts Biden winning Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina. These are all states that voted for Trump in 2016, some by wafer thin margins.
If the Oxford forecast is correct, Biden would win 328 electoral college votes, while Trump would garner just 210. Under those circumstances, the Democratic victory would be historic and substantial.
It is worth noting this is based on the popular vote as Oxford Economics does not specifically model electoral college votes.
Oxford Economics’ model was incorrect only twice: in 1968 when Richard Nixon staged the political comeback of the century, and in 1976 when Jimmy Carter surprised many by defeating incumbent Gerald Ford.
Darragh Roche is a journalist covering U.S. politics and media