Oxford Economics Election Model Predicts Trump Will Lose Popular Vote

A new election model from Oxford Economics forecasts President Donald Trump will lose the popular vote in November.

An unemployment rate above its global financial crisis peak, household income nearly 6% below its pre-virus levels, and transitory deflation will make the economy a nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November,” Oxford Economics said in its report.


Oxford Economics has a strong track record of predicting the outcomes of presidential elections and forecast last fall that Trump would win 55 percent of the popular vote. In April, as the coronavirus pandemic tore through the country, it forecast that Trump would win 43 percent of the popular vote.

The Oxford Economics forecast comes a day after the latest poll from Quinnipiac University, which shows that presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 11 points in the general election match-up.


The poll of more than 1,300 self-identified registered voters found that Biden enjoys an 11 point lead, 50 percent to Trump’s 39 percent.

“What does the 11 point Biden lead tell us? At best for Team Trump, it says voter confidence in President Trump is shaky. At worst for them, as coronavirus cases rise, Trump’s judgement [sic] is questioned – and November looms,” said Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy.

“More than two months into the coronavirus crisis in the U.S., President Trump’s job approval rating ticks lower. 42 percent of voters approve of the job President Trump is doing, while 53 percent disapprove. That’s compared to a 45 – 51 percent job approval rating he received in April, his highest ever,” the poll observes.