In 2016, Donald Trump carried Missouri by about 20 points over Hillary Clinton. It’s a state that hasn’t been on anybody’s radar in terms of 2020 battlegrounds.
Still, a new poll of Missouri released on Thursday shows Joe Biden pulling into a virtual tie with the president, 48 percent for Trump and 44 percent for the former VP.
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 28, 2020
Trump’s narrow lead over Biden is within the poll’s 4.4 percent margin of error. Not to mention, five percent of Missouri likely voters are still undecided.
We Ask America, the pollster, notes that Biden’s relative strength in the red state is driven by Democratic unity and heavy support among Independent voters.
“President Trump is receiving 90% of support from Republicans while Vice President Biden is getting 92% of Democrats,” the survey found. “Among Independents, Biden holds a 47-29% lead. This is driven largely by a thirty-one-point lead (58%-27%) with Independent Women.”
There is no question that Trump is still the favorite to win Missouri, but as the Lincoln Project’s George Conway pointed out on Thursday, the fact that an incumbent president can’t hit 50 percent in a state he won by 20 points should be concerning for the Trump campaign.
Trump is crumbling all over the electoral map
In Arizona, a state that hasn’t gone blue since 1996, Democrats are also surging as both Biden and Democratic Senate challenger Mark Kelly have held steady leads throughout the year.
In the more traditional battlegrounds of Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – all states Trump carried in 2016 – Biden has consistently polled ahead of the president.
A lot can happen over the next five months to turn the polling and the presidential campaign upside down. But so far it’s been one of the most stable contests on record, with Trump playing defense all over the electoral map.
Sean Colarossi currently resides in Cleveland, Ohio. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and was an organizing fellow for both of President Obama’s presidential campaigns. He also worked with Planned Parenthood as an Affordable Care Act Outreach Organizer in 2014, helping northeast Ohio residents obtain health insurance coverage.