More Americans identify as Democrats, a signal that American party preferences have “swung sharply” in their favor, according to the latest Gallup poll.
“What had been a two-percentage-point Republican advantage in U.S. party identification and leaning has become an 11-point Democratic advantage, with more of that movement reflecting a loss in Republican identification and leaning (down eight points) than a gain in Democratic identification and leaning (up five points,” Gallup reported.
- Half of U.S. adults identify as Democrats (32 percent) or as independents with Democratic leanings (18 percent). 39 percent identify as Republicans. 13 percent identify as Republican leaners.
- Slightly more Americans identified as Republicans during January and February, when the Senate tried and acquitted President Donald Trump on impeachment charges.
- Democrats gained a two-point advantage in Apri and May as the coronavirus pandemic intensified.
- There was a three-point increase in Democrat identification during the month of June as nationwide protests in the wake of the killing of George Floyd brought increased attention to racial injustice and police brutality.
- “Double-digit Democratic advantages have been relatively uncommon,” and the party last held a 10-point advantage in January 2019, when they became the majority party in the House of Representatives.
“Four months before Election Day, Democrats appear to be as strong politically now as they were in 2018 when they reclaimed the majority in the House of Representatives and gained seven governorships they previously did not hold. If the strong current Democratic positioning holds through Election Day, Democrats could build off those 2018 successes to possibly win the presidency and Senate in 2020,” Gallup notes.
“Many GOP senators up for reelection this year were last elected in 2014, a favorable year for Republicans, and appear to be facing a much more challenging political environment than six years ago. At the same time, Trump — with a job approval rating currently below 40% — appears vulnerable to being denied a second term,” the poll concluded.