Two new Quinnipiac University polls of Florida and Pennsylvania found Joe Biden leading by 3 points in Florida and 8 points in Pennsylvania.
According to the Quinnipiac University Poll:
In Florida, 48 percent of likely voters support Biden and 45 percent support Trump. In Pennsylvania, Biden leads Trump 52 – 44 percent.
In Florida, 93 percent of likely voters who selected a candidate in the presidential match up say their minds are made up, with 5 percent saying they might change their minds. In Pennsylvania, 94 percent say their minds are made up, with 5 percent saying their minds might change.
Given a list of choices, a plurality of Florida likely voters say the economy is the most important issue in deciding who to vote for in the presidential race. Twenty-seven percent name the economy, 19 percent say law and order, 15 percent name the coronavirus, and 13 percent say racial inequality.
Given a list of choices, a plurality of Pennsylvania likely voters say the economy is the most important issue in deciding who to vote for in the presidential race. Twenty-nine percent name the economy, 16 percent say the coronavirus, 15 percent name law and order, and 13 percent say racial inequality.
A good, but rough barometer of Donald Trump’s prospects to win a state is how highly voters rank law and order on their list of priorities. In Pennsylvania, law and order is behind the coronavirus and the economy and is only two points ahead of racial inequality. In Florida, law and order is the second most important priority behind the economy.
Trump has made his campaign about law and order, so the lower that issue ranks, the worse the situation is for the president.
If Biden wins Florida, the election will be over. If Biden wins Pennsylvania, it might be impossible for Trump to get to 270 Electoral College votes.
Trump is coming to Pennsylvania on Thursday evening because he is losing. Trump has a massive Pennsylvania problem and unless he can turn the tide, the state looks like it will be returning to its former blue status in November.
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Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association