Joe Biden has opened up a three-point lead in Arizona as white women have dumped Trump and moved toward Democrats in the red state.
Every four years, it can seem like the path to the presidency runs through the same list of well-trodden battleground states. But this time, we’re on some newer turf: Democrats are contesting some states in the fast-growing Sun Belt — notably Arizona —which has been in the Republican column all but once since Eisenhower.
More White women have shifted toward Biden since July. He is now running neck-and-neck with Mr. Trump among them. And Biden enjoys a double-digit advantage over the president with White women with a college degree.
Overall, Biden leads 47%-44% in Arizona, which is an increase of three points from July, and Biden has taken a small 47%-45% lead with white women in the state. The former vice president is also polling at the same level as Hillary Clinton with Latinos.
Bill Clinton, in 1996 is the only Democrat to carry Arizona since 1952. Barack Obama lost Arizona by nine points in both 2008 and 2012. Biden is outperforming Obama’s vote share by 12 points in Arizona.
The problem for Trump is that it isn’t any one single issue that is causing the state to give serious consideration to Joe Biden. The pandemic is a significant problem. Only 26% of Arizonians said they were optimistic about the country right now, and just 18% described themselves as confident. 65% said that they were uneasy about things in the country.
The message in the polling isn’t so much who is winning and losing, but that voters want to feel good again. Trump is shooting himself in the foot with constant negativity and gloom and doom. Voters want to feel like things will get better, and a majority of them view Joe Biden as the candidate who will make things better.
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Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association