Joe Biden has opened up a tight three-point lead in North Carolina and a much larger 10 point lead over Trump in Wisconsin.
Among likely voters in North Carolina, 49% support Biden, 46% Trump. In Wisconsin, likely voters break 52% for Biden to 42% for Trump.
The results suggest North Carolina voters see some strength in each candidate. Likely voters there divide over which candidate would better handle the top issues in the campaign, with Trump holding an advantage on handling the economy (52% to 45% among likely voters) and Biden ahead on handling the coronavirus pandemic (52% to 46%) and racial inequality in the US (53% to 41%). They see Biden as more apt to unite the country (54% to 40%), and are more likely to say Trump has the stamina and sharpness to be president (50% to 44%). They split evenly (47% to 47%) over who has a clear plan to solve the country’s problems and who would keep Americans safe from harm (49% Trump to 48% Biden).
In Wisconsin, on the other hand, Biden has an edge over Trump on all but two of those tested matchups, and on those where Biden does not have an edge, neither does Trump.
Trump needs the exact same electoral map that he had in 2016. The president is currently not in a position to flip any of the states that Hillary Clinton won. Of the two states, Wisconsin looks like the more likely to flip back into the Democratic column.
Biden could win North Carolina, and if he did, it would be a crippling blow to Trump’s bid for a second term.
Six polls taken in early to mid-September 2016 of North Carolina showed Trump leading four of them and two ties.
At this point in 2016, polling in Wisconsin was sparse. Hillary Clinton led one poll by two points, and another by seven points.
Trump is underperforming in both states, and the trend line is clear that Joe Biden has many different paths to get to the White House.
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Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association