Joe Biden has opened up a five-point lead in Florida, as he has more definitely committed to voting for him than Trump.
According to the new Monmouth University poll of Florida:
Among all registered voters in Florida, the race for president stands at 50% for Biden and 45% for Trump. Another 2% support Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) and less than 1% back Howie Hawkins (Green), while 3% are undecided. Voter intent includes 41% who say they are certain to vote for Biden (versus 40% who say they are not at all likely to support the Democrat) and 38% who are certain to support Trump (versus 49% who are not at all likely.
Under a likely voter scenario with a somewhat higher level of turnout than in 2016, the race is unchanged at 50% for Biden and 45% for Trump. The margin narrows slightly to 49% Biden and 46% Trump when using a likely voter model with lower turnout. The last two presidential elections in Florida were decided by a single percentage point.
The Democrat has a large advantage among voters of color (70% to 22%) although the lead is smaller among Latino voters specifically (58% to 32%). According to the 2016 exit poll conducted by Edison Research for the national networks, Hillary Clinton won Florida’s Latino vote by 27 points (62% to 35%).
The idea that Biden has a Latino voter problem in Florida is starting to have some holes poked in it, as all Biden needs to do to win the state is equal Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance with Latino voters, which he is currently doing.
The election math is fairly straightforward when it comes to Florida. A Biden win will mean the end of the Trump presidency. If Trump loses Florida it will be a bellwether for a potential Biden landslide. Trump won’t win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan if he loses Florida.
In September 2016, two polls showed Trump with a small lead in Florida. Several others showed a small lead for Clinton, so Trump’s standing in the state is worse in 2020 than it was in 2016.
Biden’s chances of winning Florida are legitimate. Trump is sliding and if something doesn’t change, Florida may go blue.
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Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor and Senior White House and Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association