Joe Biden is expanding his lead in states where Trump is investing money, which suggests that Biden might be building toward a blowout.
There is also the distinct possibility that Biden blows Trump out. It’s something I’ve noted before, and the Washington Post’s David Byler pointed out a few weeks ago.
If you were to look at the polling right now, there’s a pretty clear picture. Biden has leads of somewhere between five and eight points in a number of states Trump won four years ago: Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Those plus the states Hillary Clinton won get Biden to about 290 electoral votes.
In other words, Biden’s much closer to leading in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas than Trump is in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, let alone Minnesota.
If the numbers stay stable and Democrats continue to vote in massive numbers, the picture will be much clearer in a month.
The conclusion that can be drawn right now is that the states that Donald Trump has targeted with substantial spending are not moving closer to him. Joe Biden’s numbers aren’t going down, and both Trump’s support, between 40 and 44 percent, and Biden’s lead, 5-10 points, have been stable since January.
Biden is a lot closer to winning states that Trump carried than Trump is of flipping any of the 2016 states that Hillary Clinton won.
Just like the difference between a storm watch and a storm warning, it is too early to say that Biden will blowout Trump. Recent history suggests that the election will tighten, but the conditions are right for a big Biden win, and if the trajectory continues, Trump could be handed an overwhelming defeat.
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Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association