A new Fox News poll found that Biden leads Trump 51%-44% in Pennsylvania and 8% of Trump’s supporters have flipped to Biden.
Likely voters in Pennsylvania favor Biden over Trump, 51-44 percent.
In 2016, Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania (by less than one percentage point). It was the first time since 1988 that a Republican presidential candidate had won the state. Eight percent of those who backed him in 2016 are Biden supporters today.
He is ahead by 4 points among men, 6 points among White voters, 17 points among Whites without a college degree, and 8 points among rural voters.
Biden is favored by nonwhites (+74 points), women (+17), seniors (+8), union households (+6), and suburban voters (+5). His advantage climbs to 18 points among suburban women.
Biden is peeling off nearly one in ten of the voters in the state who supported Donald Trump. Biden has especially been able to make inroads in some sections of rural Pennsylvania. The rural areas of the state will still go for Trump, but the name of the game for Biden in these parts of Pennsylvania is to perform closer to Obama levels than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
Joe Biden was always going to have a lot of appeal to blue-collar voters in the state who voted for Obama but moved over to Trump out of dislike or distrust of Hillary Clinton.
Trump considers these voters part of his base, and almost every one of his appeals in Pennsylvania is directed toward them, but Biden appears to be bringing these Democrats home, and they could be his margin of victory in the state in November.
Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor, who is White House Press Pool, and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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