State data reveals that over 864,000 Americans have already voted, and in states where party data is available it suggests a majority preference for Biden.
Professor Michael McDonald of the US Elections Project tweeted:
As a point of comparison to the 866,734 people who have already voted in the 2020 general election; in 2016, I was tracking 9,525 early voters around this same time
— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) September 26, 2020
The numbers show that 239,705 voters have already cast their ballots in North Carolina. In Wisconsin, 169,742 people have voted. In Georgia, over 35,000 people have voted before the first presidential debate.
Party data is available in Iowa, North Carolina, and Florida and they show a massive advantage for Democrats who have cast 53.9% of the ballots to 16.7% for Republicans. Independents have cast 29.1% of the votes in these three states. Since only 504 early votes have been cast in Iowa and 6,607 votes in Florida, the party breakdown is mostly North Carolina.
The Early Vote Numbers Are What Trump Was Afraid Of
The Trump campaign spent months trying to get the debates moved up because they were worried that millions of people would have already voted before the candidates debated. The fear is turning out to be correct.
North Carolina isn’t getting the attention that it deserves a potential trouble spot for Trump. If the current trend continues, Biden could run up a massive margin in the state that will be impossible for Trump to catch with what could be reduced same-day vote due to the pandemic.
While Trump has tried to place all of the focus on mail-in voting, it is possible that if Democratic vote totals continue to grow, and Independents keep favoring Biden, early voting in two key states could spell the end of his presidency.
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Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association