The Cook Political Report for the first time found that Democrats are favored to win the Senate and remove Mitch McConnell from power.
In speaking with several Republican sources over the past few days, they concede that losing just two net seats is the very best they can probably hope for — still leaving the GOP with a 51-49 advantage and one short of flipping control even if Joe Biden wins the White House. But most put the range closer to three to seven seats on the highest end, with the median agreement being perhaps a 51-49 Democratic majority that wouldn’t even need a Vice President Kamala Harris to break ties.
So we are increasing our current projection of the most likely outcome to a Democratic net gain of between two and seven Senate seats. That still leaves pretty much just one scenario — a two-seat net gain — where Republicans would still hold control. Three seats would put the partisan breakdown as a tie, and with a Biden win still more likely than Democrats flipping the Senate, that would probably mean Democratic control too. But some Republicans think a good night might be holding Democrats to simply that 51-49 majority instead of even bigger gains.
The political landscape is so dire for Republicans that they are lowering the bar for what they would consider being a good night to losing the White House and narrowly losing control of the US Senate. Everything would have to go right for Democrats to win seven seats. A more likely scenario is that Democrats win 4-5 seats.
A total flip of the Senate to a 53-47 Democratic majority is not out of the question.
The projections are dire. Records are being set for early voting around the country. Historically speaking, the indicators are pointing to the most likely outcome being a Democratic win up and down the ballot.
Anything can happen with three weeks left until Election Day, but with so many people already voting, it is looking increasingly likely that both Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell will soon be removed from power.
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Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association