Last updated on July 18th, 2023 at 12:18 pm
Trump is hoping for an election like 2016, but so far, there is no sign of a surge that is cutting into Joe Biden’s lead.
Kyle Kondik tweeted the latest data:
Waiting for tightening = Waiting for Godot (?). Week to find out, but just this morning –
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Typically R-friendly IBD-TIPP tracker up to Biden +7. YouGov +7-9 in MI-PA-WI. Another tied poll in GA
— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) October 26, 2020
State polls were already showing a Hillary Clinton collapse in 2016:
Florida, final two weeks:
Clinton +4 -> Trump +0.4 pic.twitter.com/BFBTIwwClO
— Bill Scher (@billscher) October 25, 2020
North Carolina, final two weeks:
Clinton +2.4 -> Trump +0.8 pic.twitter.com/FXHa5R0lwb
— Bill Scher (@billscher) October 25, 2020
The data showed that Trump was surging and coming back. The problem wasn’t with the polls, but with the people who were interpreting the polls. The data above showed that Trump was surging at this time in 2016, but most people ignored it.
The Trump Comeback Isn’t Happening
The main reason why Trump has not been able to run the same race as 2016 is that Joe Biden isn’t Hillary Clinton. At this point in 2016, Clinton had a net negative favorability rating that was on par with Trump’s. In 2020, Joe Biden has a net positive rating, which means that voters like him, which suggests a higher possibility that late-breaking voters will swing to Biden.
Trump not only has a vastly different opponent, but he also has a pandemic hanging over his head that is dominating the campaign and following him everywhere he goes.
2020 is different than 2016, and time is running out on Donald Trump and his troubled presidency.
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Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
