Last updated on July 18th, 2023 at 12:19 pm
If Joe Biden performs at Obama 2012 levels instead of Clinton 2016 with Western Pennsylvania Democrats, he will flip the state.
Hillary Clinton had the best performance of any Democratic presidential candidate since 1992 in Allegheny County, which contains Pittsburgh, but the rest of the Appalachian/Western part of the state was a total bloodbath for her.
Clinton Performed Worse Than Obama In 20 Western Pennsylvania Counties
Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes in 2016. In 17 of 20 Western Pennsylvania counties listed below, Clinton lost a minimum of 1,100 Democratic votes. In three other counties (Mifflin, Huntington, and Clarion), she lost less than 1,000 votes. Western PA counties where Clinton equaled or exceeded Obama’s vote total like Allegheny and Butler were not included in this analysis.
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The losses in four counties exceeded 4,000 votes each (Beaver, Fayette, Mercer, and Washington).
Here is a chart of the changes in the Democratic total vote in Western PA from 2012 to 2016:
There Are Enough Democratic Votes In Western PA/Appalachia To Flip The State To Joe Biden
Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes, but the Democratic vote total in these twenty counties decreased 51,810 votes between 2012 and 2016. There are enough votes in Western Pennsylvania to flip the state to Joe Biden even if Trump got his way and reduced turnout in the state to 2016 levels.
The Biden campaign doesn’t need to win these counties. Trump was able to win many of these counties with 65%-80% of the vote. If Democrats are mobilized to Obama levels in these red counties, Biden will 30%-40% of the vote. A change in vote share of 5%-10% would equal thousands of lost votes for Trump in rural Pennsylvania stronghold.
Joe Biden doesn’t need new Democratic voters. His campaign only has to bring 2012 Democratic voters back into his column.
Even If Trump Successfully Gets Ballots Arriving After November 3 Tossed Out, Biden Could Still Win Pennsylvania
Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA) said in Sunday that there are Biden signs in places in Pennsylvania where there were not Hillary Clinton signs in 2016. I can confirm that this the case. Biden’s support in Western Pennsylvania appears to be higher than Hillary Clinton’s was, which is the reason why Trump held a series of events in Western Pennsylvania on Saturday.
As he does nationally, Joe Biden also has multiple paths to victory in Pennsylvania.
The Biden campaign has been working on getting Democratic voters energized in Western Pennsylvania for a year. The increased Biden signs are a product of the campaign’s operation on the ground where they have been much more active in working with local parties than the Clinton campaign was in 2016.
While the national media is focused on Philadelphia and the suburbs, Biden has a stealth path to victory in Pennsylvania that runs right through the heart of Trump’s 2016 support.
If Obama voters come back to Biden, Pennsylvania will turn blue.
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View the data that was used to compile this analysis
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PTRN4BW36dDcUNaJD2kwFFjUJXOb_XBIQxp4oozmThQ/edit#gid=0
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
