All of the talk about other states and paths might end up irrelevant, as the real problem for Donald Trump is in Pennsylvania.
On Morning Joe, @Redistrict explained why there looks like no path for a Trump win in Pennsylvania. Trump is not outperforming his 2016 margins, while Biden has made gains over Clinton in key areas of the state. pic.twitter.com/MM7zUyvyJC
— Sarah Reese Jones (@PoliticusSarah) November 5, 2020
Dave Wasserman said on MSNBC‘s Morning Joe:
I have a very hard time seeing a comeback path for the president in Pennsylvania. There’s just nowhere in the state where he’s overperforming his ’16 margin by enough if at all to be able to offset the kinds of defections we have seen from Trump in suburban Pennsylvania. But not just the suburbs, also in northeastern Pennsylvania, we have seen a pretty strong Biden performance in the Scranton area and the surrounding areas and the Lehigh area. Northampton county is Bethlehem. We saw Donald Trump win that county and flip it from Obama in 2016.
It apparently has flipped back to Biden, who has a lead and that Biden needed to lose by 3 points or less. These numbers are really encouraging for Biden across the board, and, you know, I was — I was speaking with a congressional Republican who pays close attention to these numbers last night. Who admitted that trump is in deep trouble in Pennsylvania.
The problems for Trump in Pennsylvania go even deeper. In the red counties in Western Pennsylvania, my pre-election analysis found that Biden had room to add thousands of Democratic votes, even in the reddest Trump rural counties.
Despite holding rallies in that part of the state in the last week of the campaign, Trump seems to have maxed out his vote there and didn’t build on his 2016 margins. In many counties, Joe Biden improved by few points, and that looks enough to put a ceiling on Trump’s support in the region, which set Biden up to run the table in Northeast PA, the suburbs, and the cities.
Trump is likely to end up losing Pennsylvania by hundreds of thousands of votes, as it appears that the Blue Wall has been restored and it will send Joe Biden to the White House.
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Mr. Easley is the founder/managing editor, who is White House Press Pool, and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association