While Democrats on Tuesday are seeing good signs in Georgia’s bluest county, it is possible that Donald Trump‘s post-election behavior could drive down the GOP margin in the state’s biggest red county.
MSNBC‘s Steve Kornacki analyzed data in Cherokee County – which Trump won by less than 40 points In November – and pointed out that the GOP used to be able to carry the county by 60 points.
Given Trump’s increasingly unhinged behavior since losing the election, it’s plausible that Democrats could further eat into the GOP margin in Cherokee.
“That’s their biggest county. They used to be able to win it by 60,” Kornacki pointed out. “Here is a question: Trump’s behavior since the election, does that help Democrats keep it down under 40? Can they even cut into that more?”
Steve Kornacki says it’s possible that Trump’s post-election behavior could drag down the GOP in Georgia’s biggest Republican county. pic.twitter.com/p5Gew8jdOW
— PoliticusUSA (@politicususa) January 5, 2021
So Republicans used to be able to win Cherokee County – that’s their biggest county. They used to be able to win it by 60. Trump couldn’t even carry it by 40 on Election Day back in November. Here is a question: Trump’s behavior since the election, does that help Democrats keep it down under 40? Can they even cut into that more? Can they deny Republicans the kind of margin in Cherokee County that Republicans have come to expect? Or can Republicans get the kind of same day turnout, certainly, that they are hoping for?
To be fair, there has been reporting that shows in-person voting in Cherokee County on Tuesday was strong. But if Republicans want to win the runoff contests, it is their margin of victory in the county that will make the difference.
If Democrats see strong turnout in blue counties – as they appear to be seeing – and they are able to continue eating into the GOP margin in places like Cherokee County, then there is reason for them to be optimistic.
Either way, this pair of runoff Senate races will likely be a coin flip, just like the presidential race was in November.
Sean Colarossi currently resides in Cleveland, Ohio. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and was an organizing fellow for both of President Obama’s presidential campaigns. He also worked with Planned Parenthood as an Affordable Care Act Outreach Organizer in 2014, helping northeast Ohio residents obtain health insurance coverage.