A new study revealed that the restrictive voting laws being passed by state Republicans would hurt the GOP more than they think.
Conventional wisdom has long held that a surge in Latino and younger voters would disproportionately help Democrats. Yet, KFF concluded that “neither party had an advantage with low propensity voters.” According to the KFF analysis, 23 percent of Democrats and 21 percent of Republicans in Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona voted in 2020 but not in 2016.
Moreover, KFF found that “a slightly larger share of new 2020 voters said they voted absentee (through the mail) with seven in ten (72%) low propensity voters taking advantage of absentee voting” compared to 67 percent of 2016/2020 voters.
Republicans are cutting off their supply of new voters by making it more difficult for these people to vote. The Sunbelt numbers also explain how Trump got so many voters. New voters who don’t usually vote split in these states and added to the total voter pool for both parties.
Republicans have bought into Trump’s lie that it was an influx of new voters who voted by mail that cost them the election. The truth is that it was new voters that led to the record 2020 turnout, and Republicans can’t keep their new voters and take away those who voted for Democrats without doing substantial damage to their own hopes for victory in 2022 and 2024.
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Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association