The Supreme Court May Have Just Handed Democrats The 2022 Election

The Supreme Court’s refusal to act on the illegal Texas abortion law has flipped the abortion politics script and could cost Republicans in 2022.

The “Culture War” Flips To Democrats

NBC News suggested that the Supreme Court’s gutting of Roe v. Wade through inaction presents a new problem for Republicans:

Democrats in Washington, who face stiff headwinds in defending their majorities in Congress in next year’s elections, see a new opportunity to motivate voters who may have taken abortion rights for granted.

And Republicans are dealing with an unsettling new political landscape after having promised to outlaw abortions for decades to motivate their base.

Republicans Have Used Abortion As A Get Out The Vote Tool For Decades

The problem for Republicans is that they never intended to get rid of legalized abortion in the United States. They haven’t done so in the nearly 50 years since Roe because abortion was an easy issue to rile up their voters and get them to the polls. Republicans could promise whatever they wanted on abortion because they thought that it would never happen.

Thanks to Texas, and the Supreme Court, it has happened.

A new NBC News poll showed that the only majorities in the country who supported making abortion illegal were evangelicals, the South, and rural voters. 54% of the country wants abortion to be legal.

Evangelicals and rural people are declining populations in the United States, so the negative outweighs the positive by a large margin for Republicans on this issue.

Democrats Have Been Given A Massive Opening For 2022

 

Instead of having to defend their record of the past two years, Democrats can argue that control of Congress will decide the fate of legalized abortion in the United States.

This argument will be compelling in the states with open Senate seats like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina. If Democrats add another two Senate seats while keeping control of the majority, they should have the ability to change the filibuster. If Democrats flip one open seat and defeat an incumbent like Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, the filibuster will be gone.

Thanks to the Supreme Court, the midterm election dynamics have changed, as Democrats now have an issue to fight for, and when Democrats show up to vote, Democrats win elections.