While the surge in Democratic turnout for Virginia gubernatorial election was a surprise, the surge in red county turnout was not.
Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report tweeted:
To be clear, Charlottesville is not representative of all blue areas. For example, Falls Church (Biden +64) was at 102% of its '17 total at 4pm.
But as expected, Rs are seeing a big enthusiasm surge vs. '17. Whether it's enough for Youngkin, we'll see. #VAGOV
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2021
A surge in red county turnout is not a shock. Virginia Republicans have lost on a regular basis over the last decade. They are hungry for a win, and they have a chance to win something that might be out of their grasp for the next decade after the new census number put the vast majority of the state in blue northern Virginia.
The Virginia election looks likely not to be an easy win for Democrats or Republicans. It could be a very long election night, as Democrats and Republicans are showing up to vote.
The big unanswered question is, will the surge in the red counties be enough to offset the Democratic advantage in the number of voters?
Glenn Youngkin could find himself in a Trump 2020 situation where he maximizes the Republican vote but still loses, or if Democratic turnout is a bit lower, the surge could power him to victory.
Either way, it could be a long election night in Virginia, as the nation looks on.
Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association