2022 election

The Election Has Swung: For The First Time Since November Democrats Lead On Average Of All Congressional Ballots

According to 538’s average of all generic congressional ballot questions, Democrats have taken the lead over Republicans for the first time since November.

A Big Post Roe Change In The Midterm Polling Average For Democrats

The 538 graph:

 

Democrats Have Been Gaining Midterm Momentum

Republicans have seen their average of all polls lead drop from 2.6 points on June 15 to trailing Democrats by one-tenth of a point today.

What happened after June 16?

The Supreme Court overturned Roe.

The 538 average matches up with internal Democratic polling showing that the Supreme Court’s ruling changed the trajectory of the midterm election. After Roe.

The second factor after June 16 was gas prices started to fall. According to AAA, the record high for a gallon of gas happened on June 14. Since polling always lags behind real-world events, the change in gas prices didn’t immediately reflect in the numbers, but after almost two months of daily declines, gas prices are no longer a “driver” of voter anger toward Democrats.

Inflation is expected to fall soon, and if prices drop before the midterm election, Republicans will be left with nothing to run on.

Democratic momentum is growing, and what was presumed to be a red wave has turned into a dog fight that Democrats have a chance to win if they work hard over the next few months.

 

Recent Posts

Trump Asks Clarence Thomas To Reverse 11th Circuit Court Ruling On Classified Docs

Donald Trump filed a motion with Clarence Thomas asking the Supreme Court to partially reverse…

3 hours ago

Trump’s Own Lawyer Mocked His Lack of Wealth

Trump's attorneys seem to know Trump's problem, at least with cash flow, and mocked his…

4 hours ago

Parents Alarmed as Florida Asks Female Student Athletes to Report Their Menstrual History

Republicans' abortion bans are raising alarm for the parents of female student athletes in Florida,…

5 hours ago

Republicans Say Herschel Walker Is Probably Done As Senate Campaign Implodes

Georgia Republicans are being described as despondent over the revelations that have pushed the Herschel…

6 hours ago

Satanic Temple Calls Republicans Religious Bluff Suing Over Abortion Bans

Here comes the Satanic Temple suing Indiana and Idaho in federal court over their abortion…

7 hours ago

14 Former Officials From His White House Say Trump Mishandled Classified Documents

More than a dozen former officials from the Trump administration say that the former president…

8 hours ago