Val Demings Lead Marco Rubio By 4 As Florida Blue Surprise May Be Building

According to a new Florida poll, Rep. Val Demings is leading Sen. Marco Rubio 48%-44% in the state’s US Senate contest.

Via: The University of North Florida:

Val Demings came out on top in the head-to-head against Marco Rubio for U.S. Senate, with 48% indicating a vote for Demings and 44% for Rubio, with 7% saying they would vote for someone else.


In addition to primary and general election questions, respondents were asked about job approval for several federal and state officials. President Joe Biden has an approval rating of38%, with 59% disapproving. The U.S. Supreme Court had similarly low approval, with 37% approving and 59% disapproval. U.S. Senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott both fared no better, each with 37% approving.


Respondents were also asked about the recent Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, which established the constitutional right to abortion in the first three months of pregnancy. When asked how this decision would impact their voting behavior, 51% said made them more likely to vote in the November midterm election, 46% said it would not affect their decision to vote, and 3% said it would make them less likely to vote.

Marco Rubio Has Three Problems

Marco Rubio is not popular with voters in Florida. It has been this way for years. Rubio’s constant grumbling about being a senator and vanishing acts to go run for president every four years have hurt him with the state’s voters. Sen. Rubio is a textbook example of a weak incumbent who is being propped up by an electorate’s partisan lean.

Rubio’s second problem is the overturn of Roe. Voters in the Florida poll lined up with has been seen elsewhere in the country. The Supreme Court ruling on Roe has motivated voters to show up in November, and that makes the electorate, even in Florida, look a lot bluer than the standard midterm election.

Lastly, Republicans thought that 2022 would be an anti-Democratic year, but it has turned into an anti-incumbent year. The red wave is not happening, and instead, voters are angry over inflation and taking it out on Republicans and Democrats. It is dynamic, explaining why Joe Biden and Marco Rubio have similar approval ratings in Florida.

2022 could be turning into a ‘throw all the bums out election,’ and that is very bad news for Republicans who are running a traditional midterm campaign against an incumbent president from the other party.

It is early, but the Republican effort to take back the Senate majority appears to be faceplanting under the leadership of Sen. Rick Scott and Donald Trump.

The blue tinge in the midterm election is real, and Republicans like Sen. Marco Rubio could be in real trouble in November.